Texas State at Baylor Game Matchup
Texas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Texas State at Baylor+26.558.5W 42 - 31
Sat 9/9 Texas State at UT San Antonio+13.566.5L 13 - 20
Sat 9/16 Texas State vs Jackson State-17.561.5W 77 - 34
Sat 9/23 Texas State vs Nevada-17.060.0W 35 - 24
Sat 9/30 Texas State at Southern Mississippi-6.560.0W 50 - 36
Sat 10/7 Texas State at Louisiana+1.067.5L 30 - 34
Sat 10/14 Texas State vs Louisiana Monroe-18.564.5W 21 - 20
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Texas State vs Troy+6.553.0L 13 - 31
Sat 11/4 Texas State vs Georgia Southern+2.069.0W 45 - 24
Sat 11/11 Texas State at Coastal Carolina-2.555.5L 23 - 31
Sat 11/18 Texas State at Arkansas State-3.559.5L 31 - 77
Sat 11/25 Texas State vs South Alabama+6.557.0W 52 - 44
Tue 12/26 Texas State vs Rice-3.558.5W 45 - 21
Baylor's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Baylor vs Texas State-26.558.5L 31 - 42
Sat 9/9 Baylor vs Utah+7.046.5L 13 - 20
Sat 9/16 Baylor vs Long Island University-44.054.0W 30 - 7
Sat 9/23 Baylor vs Texas+17.549.5L 6 - 38
Sat 9/30 Baylor at UCF+8.056.5W 36 - 35
Sat 10/7 Baylor vs Texas Tech+2.559.5L 14 - 39
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Baylor at Cincinnati+2.551.5W 32 - 29
Sat 10/28 Baylor vs Iowa State+3.047.0L 18 - 30
Sat 11/4 Baylor vs Houston-3.058.5L 24 - 25
Sat 11/11 Baylor at Kansas State+20.555.5L 25 - 59
Sat 11/18 Baylor at TCU+13.062.0L 17 - 42
Sat 11/25 Baylor vs West Virginia+6.553.5L 31 - 34
TXST's OC Mack Leftwich vs BAY's DC Matt Powledge     BAY's OC Jeff Grimes vs TXST's DC Jonathan Patke
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.731.546.7%4.551.8244591882714.651%48%46%48%15%.29
BAY Defense1233.329.445.7%4.361.3 - - - - - 54%45%46%47%17%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1223.120.939.5%3.121.3203781152633.346%54%40%39%18%.15
TXST Defense1332.838.240.4%3.71.7 - - - - - 50%49%39%42%19%.18

 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1351% (56)46% (36)40.5187.84.633 (8).24 (21)3.19 (53)78% (24)11% (31)1.13 (84)
BAY Defense1254% (114)46% (98) - - - - .24 (115)3.27 (103)70% (85)11% (51)1.16 (53)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1246% (99)40% (107)34.4114.83.313 (108).09 (101)2.99 (91)74% (95)12% (63)1.03 (103)
TXST Defense1350% (69)39% (37) - - - - .12 (56)2.87 (28)54% (73)14% (3)1.21 (6)

 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDsIntsPassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1348% (73)48% (15)22.133270.98.212.324 (41)9 (40).36 (36)1.5 (97)32% (63)36% (22).47 (24)4% (8)2 (80)
BAY Defense1245% (21)47% (123) - - - - - - 7 (111).47 (131)1.7 (107)30% (101)38% (129).52 (130)6% (75)2.2 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDsIntsPassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1254% (31)39% (90)21.936.82637.11215 (96)7 (21).22 (90)1.6 (79)34% (109)26% (103).18 (111)6% (77)1.8 (123)
TXST Defense1349% (68)42% (77) - - - - - - 11 (53).27 (66)1.7 (109)36% (10)36% (123).42 (113)5% (117)2 (47)

 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1329:0423.944%66%7.2681.81.77.72.6429.1
Baylor1231:4219.836%46%4.128.91.31.351.5228.6
Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)
Texas State's Performance Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)
Texas State's Offense Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)
Texas State's Defense Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)
Texas State's Team Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)

Texas State's SP+ Ratings
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 (#79)
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 (#47)
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 (#114)

Sun Belt's Avg 2023 SP+ Rating: -4.5
Sun Belt's Avg 2023 SP+ Offense Rating: 25.2
Sun Belt's Avg 2023 SP+ Defense Rating: 29.6

Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 (#79)
Texas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 (#102)
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 (#119)

Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: -
Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State:    Baylor: 2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0   Baylor: -8.8

Performance Ratings Matchup
Texas State:    Baylor:

Team Ratings Matchup
Texas State:    Baylor:




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 2 (#Team not found for the given year.)
Baylor's Performance Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)
Baylor's Offense Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)
Baylor's Defense Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)
Baylor's Team Rating: (#Team not found for the given year.)

Baylor's SP+ Ratings
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 (#98)
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 (#78)
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 (#105)

Big 12's Avg 2023 SP+ Rating: 6.5
Big 12's Avg 2023 SP+ Offense Rating: 31.0
Big 12's Avg 2023 SP+ Defense Rating: 24.5

Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 (#98)
Baylor's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 (#30)
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6 (#15)

Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: -
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.2

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Texas State Roster Talent
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79
2022 Talent Rating: 464.66
2021 Talent Rating: 428.48

Blue Chip Ratio: 0% (#Team not found for the given year.)

Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 441.19
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 598.22
Projected Score
Texas State 35
Baylor 28


Projected Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Texas State
Baylor

Total Points:
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.4

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Baylor Roster Talent
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00
2022 Talent Rating: 666.05
2021 Talent Rating: 660.65

Blue Chip Ratio: 0% (#Team not found for the given year.)

Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 598.22




YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/02Baylor31Texas State42Texas StateBaylor -26.5Texas State58.5Over
202209/17Baylor42Texas State7BaylorBaylor -30Baylor53.0Under
202109/04Texas State20Baylor29BaylorBaylor -13.5Texas State52.5Under
200709/15Baylor34Texas State27Baylor
200409/11Baylor24Texas State17Baylor
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor411 Overs
Texas State122 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 31 - 20 - 11 - 1
(#Team not found for the given year.) Texas State Info
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Texas State is 0 - 0 in last 4 games (2 at Home, 2 on Road)
Last 4 Games: 29 - 30

Last 2 Road Games: 40 - 35

Texas State has Really Good Running Game (#)
Texas State Offense has a good overall Success Rate (#)
Texas State Offense is good in Scoring Position (#)
Texas State Offense has a good Passing Game Success Rate (#)

Texas State Offense has a good Success Rate on Pass Downs (#)
Texas State has a good 4th Down Conversion Rate

Texas State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Texas State has a top Defensive Power Success (#)
Texas State Defensive Line is very good vs the Run (#)
Texas State Front 7 has a top Havoc Rate (#)

Texas State Defense Recovers a lot of Fumbles (#)
Texas State Kick Return team is explosive (#)


Texas State Deficiencies
Texas State has a bad TO Margin (#)
Texas State Fumbles a Lot (#)
Texas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#)
Texas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Texas State Gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#)
Texas State Does Not Stuff Runs (#)
Texas State Secondary has a bad Havoc Rate (#)
Texas State has a bad Defense Pass Downs Success Rate (#)
Texas State Gives up a Lot of Explosive Run Plays (#)
Texas State Gives up a Lot of Explosive Pass Plays (#)

Rematch from Week 1
Baylor -26.5 (58.5)
Texas State won at Baylor this year (42-31)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Baylor last year (42-31)
Baylor beat Texas State in 2022 (42-7)
Baylor beat Texas State in 2021 (29-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 99° - Wind: 6 mph

Depth Charts
Texas State | Baylor
(#Team not found for the given year.) Baylor Info
Record at home: 1 - 7 (1 - 6 - 1 vs Spread)

Baylor is 0 - 0 in last 4 games (2 at Home, 2 on Road)
Last 4 Games: 25 - 33

Last 2 Home Games: 16 - 35

Baylor has a good 4th Down Conversion Rate
Baylor Defense Recovers a lot of Fumbles (#)
Baylor commits very few Penalties (#)
Baylor Offense throws very few Interceptions (#)
Baylor Kick Return team is explosive (#)


Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor has a really bad Offense at Home
Baylor Can Not Run the Ball (#)
Baylor has a bad Offense Success Rate (#)
Baylor has a bad Offense Scoring Opp Rate (#)
Baylor has a bad Offense Pass Downs Success Rate (#)
Baylor has a bad Offense Run Success Rate (#)
Baylor Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Baylor does not Sack the QB (#)
Baylor Defense Doesn't Pick off a Lot of Passes (#)
Baylor has a bad Defense Success Rate (#)
Baylor Gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#)
Baylor has a bad Run Game Defensive Line (#)
Baylor has a bad Defense Scoring Opp Rate (#)
Baylor has a bad Defense Pass Downs Success Rate (#)
Baylor Gives up a Lot of Explosive Run Plays (#)
Baylor has a bad Defense Pass Success Rate (#)
Baylor Gives up a Lot of Explosive Pass Plays (#)




Texas State's Head Coach G. J. Kinne
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley27941467%34392488.3
Malik Hornsby81553%83015.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi2231331106.065
Donerio Davenport9146125.143
Malik Hornsby3522966.531
Jahmyl Jeter4117394.229
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Joey Hobert76895811.883
Ashtyn Hawkins55874315.948
Kole Wilson66747811.377
Ismail Mahdi20275113.889
Baylor's Head Coach Dave Aranda
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen18429862%21881337.3
Sawyer Robertson6611756%864247.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson12551914.232
Dawson Pendergrass7933854.331
Richard Reese6630624.628
Sawyer Robertson356912.031
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Monaray Baldwin38623416.471
Drake Dabney33552516.763
Ketron Jackson28489117.555
Jake Roberts23231110.037